As COVID-19 has spread around the globe, reports suggest that fatality rates have varied across countries. Though well tracked in some settings, incomplete vital registration systems and lack of widespread testing render it impossible to directly estimate fatality rates in many low- and middle-income countries. To fill this gap, we estimate expected infection fatality rates across 21 world regions based on extrapolated associations between COVID-19 mortality and key demographic characteristics, age, sex, and comorbidities, as well as a metric of local health system capacity. Published in BMJ Global Health, these estimates are intended to inform policy decisions where direct estimates of fatality rates are unavailable.

Aceso Global collaborated with researchers at Stockholm University, Bocconi University, and the Center for Global Development to conceptualize, implement, and report the study and its findings.